O-014 A Methodology for Evaluating Potential Threat Hazards to Military munitions

In the documents concerned with safety/hazard assessment testing of munitions such as MIL-STD-2105B for US, OB Pillar Proc 42657 for UK, I No 0260 DGA/IPE for FR and Draft STANAG 4439, it specifies that a hazard analysis should be completed. However, none of these documents proposes a procedure for conducting such an analysis. To cater for this need, a methodology for evaluating potential threats and hazards to military munitions during peacetime and military operations is presented so that the level and range of IM tests, necessary for assessing the degree a munition has achieved reduced vulnerability, can be prescribed.

The methodology involves using a logical Threat Hazard Tree to cover the range of threats and hazards to which a military munition is likely to be exposed to during all possible life cycle environmental profiles, and suggests how this Threat Hazard Analysis Tree procedure could be used for munitions likely to be used by Army and Marine Forces However, the same process could be adapted and implemented for munitions used on Naval Ships or Military Aircraft depending on the users needs. This logical approach identifies qualitatively the potential threats from perceived accident and combat scenarios. It highlights the stimulus level, but suggests that the characteristics of duration or likelihood of occurrence should be determined from other sources. Using a theoretical munition as an example and by justifying the range of threats from a series of threat matrix tables, the paper demonstrates how the user can be provided with a complete overview of all the potential threats and hazards the munition is likely to be exposed to. In addition it will allow the user to rationalize into a tailored programme of tests the most appropriate and relevant IM and safety tests necessary to assess these threats, and consider mitigation techniques to protect against these threats.

To use this procedure effectively as a decision aid, the document recommends that the logic process should be presented in the fond of a computer programme in which the associated software describes the logic process along with detailed notes and instructions for any of the decision boxes. The programme to be written by NIMIC will be based on the logic described in this paper, but with the capacity to add, modify or delete the set-up to suit individual needs.