L-076 Assessing the Risk and the Cost Benefits Associated with the Introduction of Insensitive Munitions, Part 2: Cost Benefit Analysis of the Introduction of Insensitive Munitions - Proceedings

Contains:   All the presentations that were made during the plenary session;   All the presentations that were given to aid group discussions;   The presentations made by the moderators on the results of the group discussions.

A further NIMIC report will be issued in the near future, which will summarise the group discussions and highlight the conclusions and recommendations.

Abstract: Aim and Objectives of the Workshop.

This 2-part workshop will address the issues of risk and cost benefits associated with the introduction of IM into service.

Part 1 was held from the 6-10 November 2000 in Ottawa, Canada. It addressed the issues associated with risk, based upon the definition of AOP-15 (Risk=P(event) x Consequences). The impact of the threat and target variability was also discussed. The objectives were to explore the methodologies for:

• Evaluating the probability of an event as a result of a specific threat;   
• Assessing the consequences of an event on weapon systems and platforms, personnel and facilities throughout the entire life-cycle of a munition;   
• Evaluating the risk.

Part 2 will address the issues associated with the costs and the benefits of the introduction of Insensitive Munitions in service. The objective is to establish a methodology to assess the costs and benefits for each stage of the life cycle of an IM/MURAT munition in existing or new weapon systems (compared with non-IM systems). Existing Cost Benefit Analysis methodologies will be examined to identify the parameters required to evaluate the true cost of a munition during its entire service life. As was highlighted during the Part 1 of the workshop, IM benefits are not limited to financial benefits and other benefits such as operational, political, H&S and environmental benefits can also be demonstrated. Following a plenary session where the state of the art and the questions relating to costs and benefits from IM will be presented, discussion groups will be created to address the issues of:

• First phase: life cycle costs, intrinsic and potential benefits   
• Second phase: cost-benefit analysis methodology and promotion of IM benefits to the various stakeholders.

It is not anticipated that it will be shown that IM are less expensive to procure than non-IM systems. However, the benefits of IM in terms of improved survivability, reduced vulnerability and added safety in storage and transportation, in peacetime operations as well as during peacekeeping or conflict operations are expected to be demonstrated. The objectives are, based on the results of the Risk part of the Workshop:

• Propose a Cost-Benefit Analysis Methodology for the introduction of IM into service;
• Define a methodology to promote the operational, political, H&S and environmental benefits of IM to the different stakeholders;
• Identify the Life Cycle Cost parameters influenced by IM;
• Define the benefits from reduced Hazard Classification;
• Identify the benefits of using IM when assessing the effects of accidents or attacks on platforms, logistic nodes or asset concentrations;
• Identify the most cost-efficient phase to introduce IM (initial procurement, stock replenishment or munition retrofit);
• Define the requirements of a CBA model to support the proposed CBA methodology;
• Make recommendations on the way ahead and future work.